As a baseline scenario, we expect no shortages on the procurement side for 2021. The uncertainties regarding the further development of the Covid-19 pandemic and growing protectionism mean that no strong price boosts can be expected. The central factor for the oil market is likely to be the OPEC+ group’s production discipline. In addition, shale oil production in the US is prepared to fill the gap, should there be corresponding price signals.
Through its Green Deal µ65 the EU intends to implement a climate-friendly conversion of the European economy to make it CO₂-neutral by 2050. It sets out an increase in the CO₂ reduction target for 2030 to at least 55 % and an overhaul of the emissions trading system. The recovery plan to combat the Covid-19 pandemic (Next Generation EU) also emphasizes sustainability aspects. This should further accelerate structural change in the energy sector. The expansion of renewable energies is expected to further strengthen price fluctuations on the electricity spot market due to their limited predictability. The simultaneous phase-out of nuclear power and coal could boost prices, particularly from 2023.