- The forecasts for development in 2021 are based on the assumption that as vaccination programs progress, it will be possible to gradually return to essentially uninterrupted economic and social activities from early summer 2021.
Anticipated development (%)
As of February 2021. Forecasts for 2021 rounded to half percentage points.
Source: Oxford Economics
A significant recovery of the global economy is expected for 2021, which will, however, not be sufficient in many regions to make up for the losses in the 2020 crisis year; this means that economic output is not expected to return to its 2019 level again until 2022. Delays in combating the Covid-19 pandemic could downgrade this forecast once again.
It is also possible that developments already existing prior to the Covid-19 crisis will continue to weigh down companies. These include trade conflicts, geopolitical conflicts and the consequences of Brexit, the extent of which remains difficult to assess. In addition, the Covid-19 crisis has increased government debt not only in Germany, but also in many other countries. If the financial markets lose confidence in the creditworthiness of these countries, there could be far-reaching consequences for the entire financial system.
For these reasons, we expect companies to continue to hold back on investments, which in turn will weaken further prospects for economic growth. Germany in particular, as an important producer of capital goods, is likely to be affected by this development.