Assessment of the risk situation
The risk situation is assessed on the basis of our RMS. Very likely opportunities and risks (probability of occurrence > 70%) have already been dealt with in the forecast of EBIT development in the 2023 financial year. The system is based on the requirements of the KonTraG and is continually evolving.
As of December 31, 2022, DB Group’s risk focus (probable risks) was on the economic climate, market and competition category, the Covid-19 pandemic, the production and technology category, and the procurement and energy market category. Risks result mainly from market developments in logistics (in particular the development of air and ocean freight rates), the further development of procurement and energy prices, and inflation as a whole. In addition, there are further risks from the development of demand in passenger transport and from possible setbacks in overcoming the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, in connection with ETCS projects and the development of operational quality.
For the forecast of EBIT development in the 2023 financial year, risks (taking into consideration countermeasures) amounting to € 1.7 billion exist (thereof very likely: € 0.0 billion). The realization of the initial collective bargaining requirements of EVG would result in a significant additional burden.
Opportunities beyond the EBIT forecast amount to € 0.3 billion (of which very likely: € 0.3 billion). These opportunities exist, for example, in the procurement and energy markets category.
The risk assessment does not include any risks from the collective bargaining negotiations in 2023.
In 2023, higher energy prices can no longer be fully compensated by hedging measures.
Third-party evaluation is also an important indicator for overall risk assessment. In addition to the internal risk assessment, DB Group’s creditworthiness and aggregate default risk are assessed by credit rating agencies. Their external assessments of the overall risk position of DB Group are reflected in the good credit ratings. In the area of sustainability, potential risks are externally assessed and evaluated by ESG rating agencies.
In terms of organization, we have created the conditions necessary to enable the early identification of possible risks. Our continuous risk management and the active management of key risk categories contribute to limiting risks. Key strategic opportunities and risks were identified at the business unit level and recorded in the course of the strategic process for operationalization with measures. Our analyses of opportunities and risks, countermeasures, hedging and precautionary measures, together with the opinion of the Management Board based on the current risk assessment and our mid-term planning (MTP), indicate that there are no risks that, individually or jointly, could have an impact on the net assets, financial position and results of operations of DB Group and that would pose a threat to the Group as a going concern.