Adaption to climate change
As an operator of critical infrastructure and as an organization with high land use, we are strongly affected by the potential impact of climate change. We are, therefore, intensifying our efforts in coordination with the BMDV to prepare rail technology, including for the increasing weather extremes caused by climate change. We rely on, among other things, the scientific statements of the studies commissioned by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to advance the strategic further development of our climate resilience management.
Analysis of climate scenarios
In 2021, we once again commissioned the PIK to conduct a study examining the climatic changes in Germany up to 2060 and their expected impact on DB track infrastructure, using two climate scenarios from the IPCC:
- RCP 2.6 (compliance with the 2°C target) and
- RCP 8.5 (“continue as before”).
The results predict significantly more heat days and fewer harsh winters. At the same time, extreme weather conditions such as heavy rains will increase and the intensity of storm events will continue to increase, too. For the first time, the study also provides detailed forecasts of the climatic effects in the 34 transport regions of DB InfraGO.
In addition, DB Group uses climatological data from the basic service of the German Adaptation Strategy for Climate Change (DAS-Basisdienst) as a recognized data basis for its own comprehensive exposure analyses in the business units. The previous data set of 12 climate indicators was significantly expanded in 2024. It now comprises more than 80 parameters with a high geographical resolution of 5 x 5 km for the reference period (1971 to 2000), the near future (2031 to 2060) and the distant future (2071 to 2100). This allows us to gain detailed insights into regional climate change impacts.
Analysis of climate risks
The findings of the PIK study from 2021 form the basis for DB Group’s own, more extensive climate risk analyses. When examining climate risks, DB Group follows the recognized methodology of the BMDV network of experts. This consists of three core elements: exposure analysis, sensitivity analysis and criticality analysis. An initial exposure analysis with 12 climate indicators had already been conducted in 2023 for DB InfraGO’s passenger stations and stopping points.
On a Group-wide basis, all efforts required for reliable rail technology to meet the challenges of climate change were pooled in 2024 in the climate-resilient rail technology program. The program’s analysis of measures is aligned with the RCP 8.5 scenario. This is aimed at identifying the measures required to make vehicles, infrastructure and buildings technically resilient based on a specially developed process model. To that end, a comprehensive climate risk analysis on the exposure, sensitivity and criticality of the rail technology facilities of the business units and service units involved in the climate-resilient rail technology program was conducted in 2024. This provided a comprehensive picture of the climate change-related risks for the facilities examined.
This holistic approach forms the basis for the development of targeted and effective adaptation measures to strengthen the resilience of the rail system.
Pilot projects were initiated for selected groups of facilities based on the findings. In the detailed investigations, for example, historical weather and disruption data were analyzed to identify statistically significant causal relationships and develop and test effective adaptation measures.
Measures to adapt to climate change
At DB InfraGO, the natural hazard management department deals with extreme weather events and climate impact adaptation in the core areas of storm risk management, heat prevention, winter management and heavy rain and flood resilience.
As part of storm damage prevention, DB InfraGO is working together with the project consortium of the “RailVitaliTree” research project, coordinated by the German Center for Rail Transport Research (DZSF), for example. This is aimed at developing a vitality monitor that uses satellite data to display changes in the vitality of trees in the vicinity of rail tracks in high temporal and spatial resolution. Investigations at about 12 locations in Germany include studies on the growth of trees based on tree ring analyses, so-called dendroecological studies, microclimatic measurements and drone flights. This is aimed at better understanding the factors that have a negative impact on tree vitality in the forest area along the tracks and to develop measures against branch breakage and tree falls. The first samples were taken in 2024 and two weather stations were set up to collect data. The results of the project are expected at the end of 2026.
To protect sensitive command and control technology, DB System Technology and DB InfraGO equipped almost 100 axle counting points with temperature loggers in 2024, which will measure temperature fluctuations in their interior housings until the end of 2025. The aim is to investigate whether there is a correlation between air temperature and other location factors and the interior temperature. Following a comparison with predicted temperature peaks, investigations will then be conducted as to whether and which of the technologies tested in 2022 and 2023 are suitable for protecting sensitive command and control technology from increasingly long and intense heat waves at which locations.
Climate change adaptation is also increasingly becoming a focus for new construction and expansion projects. Since July 2024, the European guidelines for ensuring the climate compatibility of future infrastructure projects of common European interest have required mandatory climate proofing that takes into account both climate protection and climate resilience concerns. DB Group already voluntarily carried out comprehensive climate proofing for selected major projects in 2023, including on the Karlsruhe — Basel and Hamburg — Lübeck — Puttgarden lines. The analysis included 25 climate-related hazards such as heat waves and heavy rainfall and their impact on various project components such as tracks and buildings up to 2100. Specific adaptation plans were developed for identified risks. Since 2024, qualified surveyor offices have been supporting climate proofing for future projects.
DB InfraGO is working on the development of climate-resilient station environments. This is aimed at increasing the comfort and safety of passengers and to strengthen the resilience of stations to extreme weather events. In cooperation with municipalities, the aim is to create livable and climate-adapted public spaces. To assess the vulnerability of stations and stops stopping points to the consequences of climate change, comprehensive analyses were conducted in 2024 with regard to heat, heavy rainfall events, wind and cold, and concrete adaptation measures, such as climate-adapted planting or the use of permeable soils, were tested in initial pilot projects. This not only contributes to improving climate resilience, but also strengthens biodiversity and enhances the quality of life about the station.
In 2024, we once again supported the work of the BMDV network of experts by providing data and our expertise in several projects which involved different modes of transport and Federal authorities.