Assessment of the risk situation in 2025
The risk situation is assessed on the basis of our RMS compared to the forecast for EBIT development in the 2025 financial year. The system is based on the requirements of KonTraG and is continually evolving. In contrast to the 2023 Integrated Report, we take a gross view of the opportunities and risks and present not only the likely risks but also the possible and highly likely risks. This results in a methodological increase in risks compared to the 2023 Integrated Report, irrespective of the development of risks in terms of content.
- The main risk areas (high and medium importance) are in the “Federal budget financing,” “Production and technology” and “Economy, market and competition” categories. These risks result primarily from infrastructure financing and support of the train-path pricing system, the quality of operations and the impact of construction sites as well as the economic and competitive situation in long-distance and freight transport.
- The opportunities (high importance) are concentrated in particular on the “Federal budget financing” and “Production and technology” categories in respect of expense management and other optimization programs, including as part of the S3 restructuring program and the transformation of DB Cargo.
Third-party evaluation is also an important indicator for overall risk assessment. In addition to the internal risk assessment, DB Group’s creditworthiness and aggregate default risk are assessed by credit rating agencies. Their external assessments of DB Group’s overall risk position are reflected in the good credit ratings. In the area of sustainability, potential risks are externally assessed and evaluated by ESG rating agencies.
In terms of organization, we have created the conditions necessary to enable the early identification of possible risks. Our continuous risk management and the active management of key risk categories contribute to limiting risks. Key strategic opportunities and risks were identified at business unit level and backed up with measures in the course of the strategic process and for operationalization. Our analyses of opportunities and risks, countermeasures, hedging and precautionary measures, together with the opinion of the Management Board based on the current risk assessment and our mid-term planning, indicate that there are no risks that, individually or jointly, could have an impact on the net assets, financial position and income situation of DB Group, and that would pose a threat to DB Group as a going concern. DB Cargo AG is exposed to the risk that key assumptions underlying its liquidity planning do not materialize within the forecast period (in particular if the transformation of DB Cargo cannot be successfully implemented or risks from economic developments and the market environment materialize), resulting in a liquidity gap. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty at DB Cargo AG which may cast significant doubt on the ability of DB Cargo AG to continue as a going concern, and which represents a risk to the company’s continued existence. Due to DB Cargo AG’s high credit exposure to DB AG, this also represents a risk for DB AG as a lender.
Significant risks
| Risk category | Significant risks | Probability of occurrence | Impact | Relevance | Change compared to previous year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lack of funding for expenses, train-path pricing system/facility pricing system support | Highly likely | High | High | – | |
| Financing from the Federal budget | Uncertain eligibility | Possible | Medium | Low | |
| Revenues and expenses due to low operating quality, impact of construction sites | Highly likely | High | High | – | |
| Unplanned maintenance measures | Likely | Medium | Medium | – | |
| Production and technology | Delays to ramp-up of optimization programs | Possible | Medium | Low | – |
| Economic climate, market and competition | Economic situation and competition in long-distance transport and freight transport | Likely | High | Medium | |
| Regulation | Reclaim of regional factors, complaints about train-path pricing system notifications | Possible | Medium | Low | – |
| Liability risks from past acquisitions | Possible | Low | Low | – | |
| Law and contracts | Complaints about noise emissions from operations, Elbtower construction site due to SIGNA insolvency | Possible | Low | Low | – |
| Procurement and energy market | Procurement price risks | Likely | Low | Low | |
| Significant events | Purchase price risks due to DB Schenker profit development | Possible | Low | Low | – |
| Capital markets and taxes | Operating expense deduction and rising interest rates on the capital market | Possible | Low | Low | – |
Unassessed risks, i.e. risks that could not be assessed as of December 31, 2024, are generally not part of the table and are described qualitatively in the text.
Significant opportunities
| Opportunity category | Significant opportunities | Probability of occurrence | Impact | Relevance | Change compared to previous year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creation of a contractual basis for Government funding | Highly likely | High | High | – | |
| Financing from the Federal budget | Train-path pricing system support | Possible | Low | Low | – |
| Production and technology | Expense management, optimization programs | Highly likely | High | High | |
| Law and contracts | Settlement of legal disputes | Highly likely | Low | Low | – |
| Economic climate, market and competition | – | – | – | – |
Unevaluated opportunities, i.e. opportunities that could not be evaluated as of December 31, 2024, are generally not included in the table and are described qualitatively in the text.