As of February 2025. 
Forecasts for 2025 rounded to half percentage points.
Source: Oxford Economics

Forecasts for global economic growth in 2025 are roughly on a par with the previous year. Growth in Asia and North America is likely to continue to weaken slightly. While growth in Europe is set to remain at the previous year’s level, the expected recovery in Germany is unlikely to materialize in 2025. Industrial production is still performing very poorly, and the threat of trade conflicts is putting additional pressure on exports. The expected interest rate cuts by the ECB are likely to improve the investment environment in the future, which would benefit Germany in particular. International trade in goods is also forecast to grow at the same level as the previous year.

Risks to economic development arise primarily from the ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts. First and foremost among these is the war in Ukraine. However, trade conflicts between the USA and Europe or the USA and Asian countries, for example, would also have a negative impact on growth in the countries involved. If the coalition negotiations were to drag on for a long time after the Federal elections in February 2025, this would pose a risk to economic development in Germany.