As a baseline scenario, we expect hardly any physical bottlenecks on the procurement side in 2025. Energy prices (natural gas and electricity) rose again from mid-2024, and by early 2025 had reached the same level as about the turn of 2021/2022. If they last for more than just a short time, these price increases are likely to be factored back into industrial production processes and passed on to customers in the form of higher product prices. High wage and collective bargaining agreements pose an additional burden. The producer price index for industrial products for 2024 is about 3 index points below the previous year’s value. Producer prices for industrial products are expected to fall further by about 5 index points in 2025 (compared to 2024).

The geopolitical developments resulting from the new presidency in the USA are likely to have a significant impact on the energy markets.

The development of energy prices (gas, electricity and oil) is subject to uncertainty in light of the further course of the war in Ukraine and potential new geopolitical risks, as well as the overall economic situation in Germany in 2025. In addition, producer prices are generally expected to fall slightly in 2025.

Due to the muted economic outlook and stagnating inflation, it remains to be seen whether prices in DB-specific segments will also move sideways. In infrastructure in particular, the aim will be to balance the continued high demand with the scarce supply in terms of time and location and to increase the overall market capacity in certain technologies.