Outlook
Outlook
DB Group’s environment continues to be characterized by weak economic development in Germany and Europe. This economic weakness is reflected in the restrained consumer behavior of private households and, above all, in the low level of investment by companies. One important reason for this is the increased uncertainty caused by geopolitical crises, among other things. However, the normalization of inflation and interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are fueling hopes that there will be an economic recovery in 2025. At the same time, the threat of trade conflicts is counteracting this positive effect.
Development of DB Group
- Noticeable progress expected in the implementation of the S3 restructuring program.
- Capital expenditure activity remains at a very high level.
- Revenue and profit development expected to be positive.
- Proceeds from the sale of DB Schenker are having a noticeable effect on indebtedness.
Our forecasts for the development of DB Group and the business units in the 2025 financial year are based on our expectations of developments in the market, competition and environment, as well as the success of the implementation of planned measures, particularly in connection with our S3 restructuring program.
The business development of DB Group in 2025 is expected to continue to be characterized by burdens due to the high energy, purchasing and personnel costs. In addition, quality assurance and quality improvement measures, particularly in the track infrastructure, have an impact on the development of DB Group. Economic development in Germany and Europe is likely to have bottomed out, meaning that slight supporting effects are expected. Countermeasures from the S3 restructuring program should have a positive effect.
| Anticipated development | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure pillar | ||
| Infrastructure-related delays (lost units/day) | 5,998 | 5,640 |
| Generally modernized kilometers (km) | 74 | 147 |
| Number of restricted speed sections total network (Ø/day) | 279 | 230 |
| Replacement of old interlockings (as of Dec 31) | – | 50 |
| Operations pillar | ||
| Punctuality (operational) DB Long-Distance (%) | 62.5 | 65–70 |
| Punctuality DB Regional (rail) (%) | 90.7 | 90–92 |
| Punctuality DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 68.0 | 66.5–71.5 |
| Trains affected by construction (thousand trains/year) | 2,787 | 2,350 |
| Profitability pillar | ||
| EBIT adjusted (€ billion) | –0.3 | >0 |
| Personnel expense ratio (%) | 51.6 | <53 |
- Infrastructure:
- Infrastructure-related delays are to be significantly reduced by the end of 2025 by implementing appropriate measures. The implementation of general modernizations, which has a direct impact on the quality of rail operations, is also relevant in this respect.
- In 2025, the general modernization of the Emmerich — Oberhausen corridor will take place from February 15 to December 14.
- Reducing the number of restricted speed sections is a further aspect of increasing operational quality. This is achieved by avoiding the proliferation of such sections and rapidly eliminating them, both in the high-performance network and in the other parts of the network.
- Replacing old interlockings also systematically reduces the system’s susceptibility to faults.
- Operations:
- The aim is to improve punctuality by 2025. However, achieving the punctuality targets remains a major challenge due to the further planned increase in transport volumes and the existing capacity and obsolescence problems in the infrastructure. For this reason, quality measures will be further advanced and intensified, particularly with regard to structurally sustainable improvements.
- The aim is also to reduce the trains affected by construction. A significant reduction in trains affected by construction will lower the number of construction-related regulations during the year and increase the proportion of schedule documents provided on time.
- Profitability:
- We expect to return to a positive operating profit (EBIT adjusted) in 2025. This improvement is being driven by the positive development of the transport companies and a significantly better result at DB InfraGO.
- The personnel expense ratio is likely to increase slightly compared to 2024. This is due in particular to rising personnel expenses as a result of collective wage agreements in the past and the expected moderate revenue growth.