Outlook

Additional key figures on the

Income situation, financial position and net assets

Anticipated development / € billion

2023

2024

Revenues adjusted

45.2

~ 47

EBIT adjusted

–1.0

> 1

Gross capital expenditures

16.9

~ 21

Net capital expenditures

7.6

> 11

Maturities

2.4

2.1

Bond issues (senior)

3.0

> 1

Net financial debt as of Dec 31

34.0

~ 34

The economic development of DB Group is projected to improve noticeably again in 2024. Revenues are expected to increase significantly again in 2024 and operating profit is expected to be significantly positive again. This should be driven by strong improvements in the Integrated Rail System and, in particular, significant improvement in profits at DB InfraGO. A key aspect here is the Federal Government’s commitment of repayment of prefinancing for maintenance measures in 2023. The required amendment to the law has been passed by the German Parliament (Bundestag), but still requires the approval of the German Upper House of Parliament (Bundesrat). Based on this, appropriate adjustments to the contractual agreements with the Federal Government are required. Further drivers include further increase in demand in rail passenger transport and the implementation of efficiency improvement measures. The latter is, in particular, a prerequisite for noticeable improvements at DB Cargo, supported by the expansion of support for single wagon transport.

We will continue our quality and capital expenditure initia­tive for the Integrated Rail System with large capital expen­ditures. We thus intend to improve our quality and customer satisfaction, drive forward digitalization (including IT secu­ri­ty improvements) and increase our performance capability.

Gross capital expenditures in 2024 is expected to be significantly above the 2023 level. In this area, the additional Govern­ment funding for the track infrastructure is noticeable. Net capital expenditures are also likely to increase significantly. The increase results from additional Government funds, which are made available in the form of equity.

Efficient liquidity management is once again a top pri­ority for us in 2024. We are focusing on continually fore­cast­ing the cash flow from operating activities, as this is our main source of cash and cash equivalents. We produce liquid­­­ity forecasts every month on the basis of a 12-month liq­uidity plan.

In 2024, we must redeem financial liabilities (excluding current bank liabilities and commercial papers) at about the same level as in 2023. Funding needs for this are met by issuing public and non-public bonds. Roadshows are planned in Europe and Asia in conjunction with the bond issues. In addition, we are also expected to take out short-term loans under committed facilities in 2024.

We continue to have adequate financial leeway for our capital market activities from our debt issuance programs and our commercial paper program. Furthermore, guar­anteed credit facilities serve as a fallback in the event of interrupted access to the capital market. At the beginning of 2024, we issued two senior bonds through DB Finance. Our short- and medium-term liquidity supply is therefore also secure in 2024.

The majority of our gross capital expenditures in 2024 will again be covered by investment grants. In addition, an ad­ditional Government equity measure is planned. The capital expenditures to be financed by DB Group will once again likely not be fully covered by internal sources in 2024.

As of December 31, 2024, net financial debt is expected to be at the same level as at the end of the previous year as a result of the higher Government support for infrastructure measures, the expected improvement in profits and the sale of DB Arriva, with simultaneously significantly rising net capital expenditures. However, the forecast is subject to increased uncertainty regarding the still lacking legal and regulatory requirements for higher Government funding.

The potential impacts of a potential sale of DB Schenker are not included in the forecasts.

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