Opportunity and risk report

Infrastructure financing

At the beginning of 2020, we concluded an agreement with the Federal Government that sets out the financing of the existing network until 2029. LuFV III and the associated long-term assurance of infrastructure quality and availability improve the attractiveness of rail as a mode of transport, which in turn results in more traffic and therefore higher revenues for infrastructure companies. Risks arise from a potential failure to achieve the contractual objectives set out in the LuFV and from a possible reclaim by the Federal Government following audits of applications of funds for the intended purposes. Due to the sharply increasing construction costs, the volume targets of the LuFV are no longer achievable with the current budget approach. New negotiations with the Federal Government have been initiated.

The economic viability of capital expenditures funded with DB funds or financing contributions to capital expenditure projects is essential if we are to ensure DB Group’s ability to invest in the long term.

In addition, the budgetary resources of the Federal Government in particular are of decisive relevance for the expansion of infrastructure capacity in order to implement a traffic shift in Germany. In order to implement Germany in sync (Deutschland-Takt), there is a need for extensive infrastructure expansion that goes significantly beyond the current Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan. We therefore assume that a significant increase in funds for infrastructure expansion from the Federal Government is required. If the Federal funds for infrastructure are not increased significantly, there would be considerable risks for network quality, transport performance and economic development. The transport policy objectives would therefore not be achievable.

The equity increase planned by the Federal Government for 2024 depends on income from the disposal of Federal Government shareholdings, but is expected to take place no later than July 15, 2024, provided that at least € 2 billion in disposal proceeds have been achieved. An amendment to the BSWAG and a supplement to the LuFV are also required in order to implement the funding measures in 2024. Risks also exist due to lower funding for infrastructure expenses from the Federal Government, for example if it is considered that planned expense topics are not eligible for grants.

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