Procurement markets
In 2023, bottlenecks in supply chains due to external influences, such as war and sanctions, were averted. As a baseline scenario, we expect scarcely any physical bottlenecks on the procurement side for DB Group in 2024. However, it remains to be seen how energy prices (gas, electricity and oil) will develop against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, and also the overall economic situation in Germany.
Overall, producer prices can be expected to ease further, but at a significantly higher level than in 2021. In the transport sector in particular, current expectations show a persistence at the current level due to high oil prices and increased wage costs.
Winter 2023/2024 started with a cold snap. However, temperatures were at a relatively mild level as early as the second half of December 2023. The energy system in Germany was able to meet demand, including peak demand. Natural gas storage was still about 70% full in Germany in mid-February 2024, and about 65% in the EU. This indicates a relaxed supply situation, which is also reflected in the spot and futures markets. The price level for natural gas in mid-February 2024 was equal to prices that had last been listed in 2020. The price of electricity on the wholesale market, depending on the development of the natural gas price, also fell further and was at 2020/early 2021 levels in mid-February 2024. It remains to be seen how quickly the lower wholesale prices will also be passed on to consumers.
