Freight transport and logistics
Anticipated market development / % | 2023 | 2024 |
German freight transport (based on tkm) | –4.9 | +0.1 |
European rail freight transport (based on tkm) | –6.9 | +0.1 |
European land transport (based on revenues) 1) | –6.1 | +4.5 |
Global air freight (based on t) 1) | –14.7 | +9.0 |
Global ocean freight (based on TEU) 1) | –5.9 | +5.5 |
Global contract logistics (based on revenues) 1) | +6.9 | +7.2 |
As of February 2024.
1) Only the markets relevant to DB Schenker were taken into account in the calculation.
After a significant decline in freight volume sold in 2023, freight volume sold is expected to stagnate in 2024 as no significant catch-up effects can be expected in the core industries that were declining in the previous year. The decline in coal transports since the second half of 2023 is expected to continue. Lower incoming orders in the construction industry due to lower interest rates will also lead to a decline in transport volumes. Positive stimulus comes from a slight increase in consumer demand, thanks to stable prices after two inflation-driven years and a simultaneous increase in wages. Although the economy will be stronger in the second half of 2024 than in the first half, increasing construction activities on the rail network could neutralize these effects and temporarily shift traffic onto the road. The market will continue to be characterized by sustained competitive pressure. In addition to prices, transport quality remains of great importance.
- Rail freight transport should maintain its level overall in 2024, after significant losses. A slight improvement is expected in steel transport; chemical and paper transports are expected to continue the downward trend
experienced in 2023. After losses in the previous year, combined transport is expected to return to an initially slight growth rate, with automotive transport expected to continue to increase. The positive effects are expected to be dampened, mainly by a double-digit decline in coal and coke transport. - After a significant decline in 2023, road freight transport should recover slightly in 2024. This is expected to be benefited by an increase in demand for consumer goods. Negative stimulus from the construction industry is expected to continue in 2024. The increase in tolls may lead to the transfer of volumes to other modes of transport over the medium to long term, but the actual volume cannot yet be estimated at this point in time.
- The freight volume sold on inland waterways having fallen to a historic low in the previous year, volume sold in 2024 will stagnate at a low level.
Provided that the energy crisis and inflation continue to taper off, stabilization is expected at the current level in 2024, following the significant declines in European rail freight transport in 2023. Due to the expected positive development of global and European trade, combined transport should return to the growth path and thus support the development of European rail freight transport. Moderate growth is expected for the European rail freight transport market in the medium-term.
- Growth is expected for the European land transport market again in 2024. The driving force is expected to be rising consumer demand in Europe, due in particular to falling inflation rates and higher wages. Freight rates will be at a relatively high level. Driver shortages and rising toll costs are expected to exacerbate the costs for freight forwarders; slightly falling energy costs will only partially compensate for this.
- Expectations for the global air freight market in 2024 are positive, but the slump in volume in the previous year will not be fully compensated for. Freight rates will be around the level of 2023.
- The development of global ocean freight in 2024 will be largely driven by world trade and freight rates. Freight rates are likely to come under further pressure in 2024 as a result of rising ship and transport capacities. Uncertainties arise in particular from the geopolitical situation, the increase in attacks on ships and resulting detours, and cost increases due to environmental policy requirements. The consequences are not yet fully foreseeable. It is assumed that growth in volumes will not yet compensate for the slump in 2023.
- The global contract logistics market is closely linked to the development of the global economy. Despite the expected weak economic momentum, the global market for contract logistics will continue to develop positively, as in the previous year. Above-average growth is forecast for Asian economies. The healthcare and electronics sectors, as well as batteries and electric drives in the automotive sector, are expected to keep exhibiting strong growth.
