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Outlook
Outlook
There are still uncertainties about the effects of the current geopolitical crises, the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza. Our forecasts are based, among other things, on the assumption that inflation will continue to weaken in 2024 and that there will also be no significant intensification of the geopolitical situation. Furthermore, it cannot be estimated whether, to what extent and with what impact, further industrial action could take place in the 2024 financial year.
Development of DB Group
The business development of DB Group in 2024 is expected to continue to be characterized by burdens due to the high energy, purchasing and personnel costs. In addition, measures to improve and maintain quality, especially in the track infrastructure, have an impact on DB Group development. The weak economic development in Germany and Europe is also expected to dampen development in 2024. Countermeasures should partially compensate for this.
Anticipated development | 2023 | 2024 |
Volume sold in long-distance transport 1) (billion pkm) | 45.5 | ~ 47 |
Passengers regional transport (rail) (billion) | 1.7 | ~ 1.9 |
Train kilometers on track infrastructure (Germany) (billion train-path km) | 1.12 | ~ 1.15 |
Condition grade high-performance network 1) (grade) | 3.1 | 2.8 |
Customer satisfaction DB Long-Distance 2) (grade) | 2.7 | 2.6 |
Customer satisfaction DB Regional (rail) 2) (grade) | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Customer satisfaction DB Cargo 2) (grade) | 2.8 | 3.0 |
Punctuality (operational) DB Long-Distance (%) | 64.0 | ~ 70 |
Punctuality (whole journey) DB Long-Distance 1) (%) | 68.9 | ~ 74 |
Punctuality DB Regional (rail) (%) | 91.0 | ~ 93 |
Punctuality DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 70.5 | ~ 69 |
Absolute greenhouse gas emissions Scope 1 and 2 (Integrated Rail System) 1), 3), 4) (million t) | 3.3 | ~ 3.2 |
Share of renewable energies in the DB traction current mix in Germany 5) (%) | 68 | ~ 69 |
Employee satisfaction (SI) | – | 3.7 |
Women in leadership 1) (%) | 29.4 | ~ 30 |
ROCE (%) | –2.0 | ~ 2 |
Debt coverage (%) | 5.2 | >11 |
1) Newly included in 2024 as a Strong Rail target.
2) Figure converted to grade in 2023.
3) Not including non-material small Group companies and subsidiaries in the Integrated Rail System.
4) 2023 value audited with limited assurance.
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Performance development:
Performance development in rail passenger transport should continue to recover in 2024.- DB Long-Distance: We expect a slight increase in volume sold. Strike actions have a dampening effect.
- DB Regional: Noticeably positive development in the number of passengers is expected, due in part to the first full year of the effect of the Germany-Ticket.
- DB InfraGO: Overall, the train kilometers on track infrastructure should develop slightly positively.
- Customer satisfaction:
- DB Long-Distance: We expect customer satisfaction to improve slightly at DB Long-Distance in 2024. The persistently challenging operating quality and the intensive construction work have a dampening effect.
- DB Regional (rail): Challenging conditions are also expected for the development of customer satisfaction at DB Regional in 2024. With the start of the general modernizations, additional train cancellations
and replacement services are to be expected, which will have a negative impact on customer satisfaction. In view of the parallel improvements in product quality, for example, due to new vehicles, expansion of services, new replacement service concepts and further developed passenger information systems, a stable development of customer satisfaction is nevertheless expected. - DB Cargo: Due to the unchanged situation with regard to construction activity in the network and due to operational restrictions, a further slight decline in customer satisfaction is expected.
- Punctuality:
- For 2024, the aim is to achieve a noticeable improvement in punctuality. However, achieving punctuality targets remains very challenging due to the continued planned increase in volume of transport and the continuing infrastructure restrictions.
- Climate protection:
- Our absolute greenhouse gas emissions in Scope 1 and 2 (Integrated Rail System) are set to decline slightly, due in particular to the further implementation of reduction measures, such as the further greening of traction current.
- In order to reduce the level of greenhouse gas in the DB traction current mix in Germany, we intend to further increase the share of renewable energies. A slight increase is expected.
- Social:
- The next employee survey will take place in 2024. Among other things, we expect a slight decline in employee satisfaction due to the persistently tense operating situation.
- We intend to further increase the proportion of women in leadership by further implementing the measures introduced.
- Profitability:
- Due to the expected significant improvement in adjusted EBIT, ROCE is expected to improve noticeably again despite a further increase in capital employed.
- Debt coverage is also expected to increase noticeably again as a result of the expected significant improvement in operating profit.
