Passenger transport
Anticipated market development / % | 2023 | 2024 |
German passenger transport (based on pkm) | +2.7 | +2.5 |
As of February 2024.
Forecast for 2024 rounded to half percentage points.
The German passenger transport market was marked by sustained growth in 2023, but the market remained well below the pre-Covid-19 level. Growth is expected to continue in a more abated form in 2024. The development of demand for transport strongly depends on regulatory policy measures, economic developments and the associated mobility behavior of the population. Commuter traffic and business trips are experiencing long-term, significant changes and, in some cases, total replacement due to mobile work and digital communication.
Motorized individual transport is expected to be close to pre-Covid-19 performance levels in 2024. Fuel prices, which remain high, continue to have little impact.
Domestic air transport is expected to claw back further Covid-19-related losses in 2024. However, due to a reduction in domestic flight offerings, market shares are likely to remain at a low level.
Public road passenger transport is expected to increase noticeably again in 2024. The Germany-Ticket will have the first full-year effect on demand in local transport in 2024. Long-distance bus services are expected to grow more slowly in comparison, due to strong competition from rail passenger transport.
Volume sold in rail passenger transport is expected to continue to grow in local and long-distance transport. In particular, long-distance transport should gain passengers from the air and bus long-distance transport sector by expanding its available offers. Local transport will benefit greatly from the Germany-Ticket.
In European passenger transport, development will be specific to the mode of transport and will vary from region to region. Strategic realignment of providers makes a consolidation of the mobility market probable. However, the progressive climate policy of the EU and its member states remains the long-term engine powering the development of environmentally friendly public mobility – and therefore rail passenger transport in particular.
