for global and European transport markets
|Development of important macroeconomic|
indicators compared to the previous year (%)
|GLOBAL TRADE (IN REAL TERMS)|
|Trade in goods|
The data for 2017 to 2019, adjusted for price and calendar effects, is based on information and estimates available as of February 2020.
Source: Oxford Economics
Economic growth in the most important global economic regions lost momentum in 2019. This is mainly because of the noticeably weaker development in the manufacturing sector and, in particular, in the production of capital goods. In the face of numerous political conflicts such as the trade disputes between the USA and China and the future relations between the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom, which remain unclear despite Brexit being agreed, there is currently great uncertainty for companies. This has led to investments being reduced or postponed in many cases, meaning that the demand for trade-intensive capital goods has fallen significantly. This is also the reason for the significantly lower growth in the global trade in goods.
The major economic regions are affected by these developments to different degrees. For example, the effects of the slowing of trade growth on the open economies of Asia and Europe, which are integrated into the global value-added chains, are comparatively strong. This is particularly true for countries where a high share of their overall economic value creation is in industrial production, such as Germany, Japan and China. As a result, growth in Europe overall is lower than in previous years.
In Asia, growth rates remain high compared to the rest of the world, but are below the values of previous years.
Many emerging and developing countries are also feeling the consequences of the high level of uncertainty. Faced with an increase in the US dollar rate against many other currencies, investments in these countries have become more expensive and therefore more unattractive. In addition, there is an increase in the cost of key imported goods, which are mostly traded in dollars, such as oil.
In the USA, on the other hand, growth has only slightly weakened. Although the economic cycle has also peaked here, the robust development of private consumption continues to ensure solid growth.