Economic outlook
Anticipated development / % | 2022 | 2023 |
World trade | +4.5 | –1.0 |
GDP world | +3.1 | +1.5 |
GDP Eurozone | +3.5 | +0.5 |
GDP Germany | +1.9 | –0.0 |
As of February 2023.
Forecasts for 2023 rounded to half percentage points.
Source: Oxford Economics
Economic output is expected to grow globally for 2023 as a whole. In industrialized countries in particular, however, the energy crisis is having a noticeable impact on development, with global growth expected to be supported primarily by positive developments in emerging markets. World trade is also affected by the weakening of the economy and is therefore expected to decline slightly in 2023.
This high level of energy and purchase prices is having a negative impact on economic output growth, particularly in the first half of 2023. This has a strong effect in the Eurozone and Germany due to the high proportion of industrial production. Supply and demand disruptions continue to be assumed. On the supply side, the high costs are burdening companies and in some cases forcing them to restrict their production. On the demand side, the purchasing power of private households is falling as a result of falling real wages, and the willingness of companies to make investments is declining due to high uncertainty and cost pressure. A noticeable recovery in economic development is not expected until the second half of 2023 at the earliest.
