Additional key figures for income, financial and asset situation
|Anticipated development (€ billion)|
Gross capital expenditures
Net capital expenditures
Bond issues (senior)
Cash and cash equivalents as of Dec 31
|Net financial debt as of Dec 31|
Above the previous year’s figure
At the previous year’s level
Below the previous year’s figure
The effects of the already noticeable impact of the coronavirus on passenger and freight transport and the further development in the course of the year cannot be quantified at present, but are expected to have a significant negative impact on revenue and profit development.
We therefore expect a decline in revenues in 2020. Additional dampening effects result from the cessation of the cessation of Arriva Rail North Franchise.
On the profit side, in addition to the revenue risks, additional expenses, for example from tariff increases and for our measures to improve quality and digitization as part of the Strong Rail strategy, are particularly noticeable in infrastructure. In addition, the development at DB Cargo and DB Regional will continue to be under pressure. Which business units are affected on the revenue side by the negative effects of the coronavirus, is not yet foreseeable at present.
We will continue our quality and capital expenditure initiative for the integrated rail system with large capital expenditures. We thus intend to improve our quality and customer satisfaction, drive forward digitalization (including IT security improvements) and increase our performance capability. The capital expenditures in 2020 are expected to be significantly above the level of the year under review. Increased vehicle capital expenditures at DB Long-Distance (ICE 4 and Intercity 2) and higher capital expenditures for track infrastructure as part of the LUFV III make an impact in this respect.
Efficient liquidity management is once again a top priority for us in 2020. We are focusing on continually forecasting the cash flow from operating activities, as this is our main source of cash and cash equivalents. We produce liquidity forecasts every month on the basis of a 12-month liquidity plan. In 2020, we must redeem financial liabilities (excluding commercial paper and current bank liabilities) at about the same level as in the previous year. Funding needs for this are met by issuing public and non-public bonds. Roadshows are planned in Europe and Asia in conjunction with the bond issues.
We continue to have adequate financial leeway for our capital market activities from our Debt Issuance Program sowie unserem Commercial-Paper-Program. The guaranted credit facilities serve as a fallback in the event of interrupted access to the capital market. At the beginning of 2020, we already issued three senior bonds via DB Finance and continued to be active in the commercial paper market with 11 issues. Our short- and medium-term liquidity supply is therefore also secure in 2020.
The majority of our gross capital expenditures in 2020 will again be covered by investment grants. In addition, a capital increase from the Federal Government is available as part of the climate packageThe net capital expenditures to be financed by DB Group will likely also not be fully covered by internal sources in 2020. The capital requirements can be covered by the issue of additional hybrid bonds, among other things.
We still plan to divest from DB Arriva. However, we currently do not assume that this will happen in 2020.
Net financial debt as of 31 December 2020 is expected to be above the level at the end of the year under review.
We will continue our M&A activities in a selective and focused manner in 2020.