- Forecasts for development in 2020 assume there will be no material changes in the geopolitical situation.
- Intensity of the effects of coronavirus on economic developments currently still not foreseeable.
Anticipated development (%)
Above the previous year’s figure
At the previous year’s level
Below the previous year’s figure
Source: Oxford Economics
The economic development in 2020 is expected to be significantly negatively influenced by the effects of the coronavirus. A weaker development of the global economy is therefore expected for 2020. In addition, dampening effects are to be expected in view of ongoing political conflicts on trade issues and an economic cycle in the industrialized countries that is nearing its end. In Europe and the Eurozone, the economy could shrink; in Asia and China, growth rates are declining. In the USA, the short-term positive effects of the tax cuts are fading, so that economic growth is also lower for this reason.
The risks for the global economy remain high, with the intensity of the effects of the coronavirus as yet incalculable, the smoldering trade dispute between the USA and China and numerous (geo)political conflicts in oil-producing countries. In Europe, now that Brexit has been agreed, the uncertainty about future relations between the EU and Great Britain will continue.
These developments are leading to a persistently uncertain decision-making environment for companies, with the result that their investments tend to remain restrained.