Outlook
Outlook
Despite the current clear upward trend, there are major uncertainties regarding, among other things, the further development of the war in Ukraine and inflation. Our forecasts are based on the assumption that the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic life will continue to decrease and that there will be no further exacerbation of issues in the geopolitical situation. Furthermore, it cannot be estimated whether, to what extent and with what impact, industrial action could take place in the 2023 financial year.
Development of DB Group
DB Group’s business development in 2023 is expected to be largely characterized by burdens due to the implementation of additional measures for quality stabilization and quality improvements, particularly in track infrastructure. These burdens are also due, among other things, to the fact that negotiations on the future financing of the track infrastructure with the Federal Government have not yet been completed, but measures will be implemented already in 2023 and DB Group is therefore starting preliminary work. In addition, the development of inflation (especially higher energy costs) and the normalization of freight rates at DB Schenker will have a significant impact in the 2023 financial year. Countermeasures will partially compensate for this.
Strong Rail top targets
Anticipated development | 2022 | 2023 |
Passengers (rail) long-distance transport (million) | 132.0 | >155 |
Passengers (rail) local transport (million) | 1,605 | ~ 1,900 |
Volume sold rail freight transport (Germany) (billion tkm) | 59.6 | ~ 62 |
Train kilometers on track infrastructure (Germany) (million train-path km) | 1,133 | >1,130 |
Customer satisfaction DB Long-Distance (SI) | 74.8 | ~ 77 |
Customer satisfaction DB Regional (rail) (SI) | 70.1 | ~ 70 |
Customer satisfaction DB Cargo (SI) | 67 | ~ 61 |
Punctuality DB Long-Distance (%) | 65.2 | >70 |
Punctuality DB Regional (rail) (%) | 91.8 | >92 |
Punctuality DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 66.1 | >67 |
Share of renewable energies in the DB traction current mix in Germany (%) | 65.2 | 67 |
Employee satisfaction (SI) | 3.9 | ‒ |
ROCE (%) | 2.8 | ~–2 |
Debt coverage (%) | 13.1 | ~ 6 |
- Volume figures for rail passenger transport should continue to stage a noticeable recovery in 2023.
- We also expect positive trends in rail freight transport volumes.
- Developments in volume produced should be stable, also in order to avoid any further burden on the infrastructure.
- Following the significant deterioration in customer satisfaction due to operational quality in 2022, a consistent level is expected for 2023. The background to this is the continuing challenges in relation to operating quality. At DB Cargo, we expect the customer satisfaction score to be significantly lower at the next measurement in March 2023 due to the significant drop in punctuality in 2022.
- Punctuality is expected to improve in 2023. In order to achieve these goals, quality-related measures will be further promoted and intensified, particularly with regard to structurally sustainable improvements, with a focus on infrastructure. However, achieving punctuality targets is a major challenge due to the further increase in volume of transport and capacity and aging problems in infrastructure.
- We will continue our measures to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the DB traction current mix in Germany through a gradual increase in the share of renewable energies.
- In 2023, the results of the employee survey will be analyzed and processed as part of the follow-up process. In autumn 2023, the culture barometer will be used as a random sample survey. The target value of the compass index 2023 is 52%.
- Due to the expected significant deterioration of adjusted EBIT, along with a simultaneous increase in capital employed, the ROCE is expected to decline.
- Debt coverage is also expected to decline significantly as a result of the expected weaker operating profit.