Economic outlook slightly lower
Forecasts for development in 2019 are based on the assumption that there will be no material change in the geopolitical situation.
| Anticipated development (%) | 2018 | 2019 |
World trade | +4.3 | ~+3.0 |
GDP world | +3.0 | ~+2.5 |
GDP Eurozone | +1.8 | ~+1.5 |
GDP Germany | +1.5 | ~+1.5 |
The data for 2018, adjusted for price and calendar effects, is based on the information and estimates available as of February 2019. Expectations for 2019 are rounded off to the nearest half percentage point.
Source: Oxford Economics
Primarily, it is expected that the current developments in the global economy will continue in 2019. Although growth in Europe and the Eurozone is continuing to weaken, it does remain positive. Economic growth in Asia is also shrinking, even if to a far higher level. In the USA, the economic cycle will probably peak in 2019, but growth remains comparatively stable. Following two relatively strong years, global trade has become noticeably weaker. In addition to the reduced momentum in economic development, the main causes of this are above all weakened expectations and increased uncertainty amongst companies. This reduces the growth in investments, which has a proportionately larger negative impact on worldwide trade.
One of the most significant risks to global economic development continues to be the unpredictability of the restrictions to the US economic and trading policy. The strength of the US dollar is expected to continue to negatively impact economic growth, particularly in many developing and emerging countries.