2018 Integrated Report – On track towards a better Railway


Passenger transport

Anticipated market development (%)



German passenger transport (based on pkm)



Expectations for 2019 are rounded off to the nearest half percentage point.

According to our forecast, the German passenger transport market is expected to continue to grow in 2019, while the growth in volume sold should be slightly above the level of the year under review. A significant factor in this respect is the foreseeable positive development of employment figures and disposable income. At the same time, a significant decrease in fuel prices is expected.

  • In terms of rail passenger transport, we anticipate strong growth, supported by our own measures to improve our offer and quality. Long-distance transport is likely to grow more strongly than local transport.
  • Stagnation is expected in public road transport. Al­­though long-distance bus transport will again grow slightly, local bus transport is likely to decrease, however, because of demographic trends.
  • Motorized individual transport may be expected to benefit from continued positive labor market conditions, income growth and decreasing fuel prices.
  • Volume sold in domestic air transport is again expected to grow moderately following the slump in the year under review.

Despite the fact that the situation in Great Britain remains fraught with uncertainties as a result of Brexit, the European passenger transport market appears to be developing positively overall. Rising employment figures and disposable income combined with rising fuel prices should hold up demand, particularly in rail passenger transport. Above-average growth is expected particularly in countries with intensive intra- and intermodal competition, significant investments on infrastructure and vehicle fleets, and consistent measures to liberalize markets.