Procurement markets
As a baseline scenario, we continue to expect scarcely any physical bottlenecks on the procurement side for DB Group in 2023. However, it remains to be seen how the continued high energy prices and the highly volatile commodity markets in production will affect prices. Producer prices are currently at a significantly higher level, due to inflation and raw materials prices. Forecasts predict a stabilization of the markets for 2023 at a significantly higher level than before the sharp increase in 2021.
Climate protection efforts are accelerating structural change in the energy sector. The expansion of renewable energies is expected to further strengthen price fluctuations on the electricity spot market due to their limited predictability. While the phase-out of nuclear power and coal power has created the potential for higher prices on the production side, developments in the mobility sector will have a significant impact on demand dynamics. In the long term, after a successful switch to renewable energies, a favorable energy source should be available, which is, however, in contrast to the expenses for the urgently needed expansion of the networks and storage systems.
For 2023, it remains to be seen whether the fall in demand among producers will continue at the end of 2022 as a result of inflation, and what effects this will have. An ongoing shortage of key products such as chips and raw materials (for example iron ore, paper) is also expected. The situation on the gas market in Germany and Europe is expected to remain tense. Due to the war in Ukraine, there is still the risk of a further increase in the prices of electricity, coal and crude oil. There is currently no foreseeable end to this development. On the production side, there may be shortfalls and thus further supply shortages.
There is likely to be little scope for prices of emissions allowances (CO₂ certificates) to fall in the long term. The political will of the Federal Government and the European Commission to achieve a rapid climate-neutral transformation of the energy supply will make itself felt here.
Overall, significant easing of the energy markets is not expected in 2023. Spot prices on the electricity market will be significantly influenced by temperature changes and wind volume.
