Outlook
The Strong Rail strategy, presented in June 2019, continues to define the future direction of DB Group.
Outlook
The specific effects of the Ukraine crisis on DB Group are currently not fully foreseeable and are not included in our forecasts. It can be assumed that the war in Ukraine will reduce Ukrainian imports and exports. As a result of the sanctions against Russia and its reactions to them, it is likely that transport between Russia and the EU will also be affected, as well as rail traffic to China, which has increased significantly in recent times. It is also likely that the conflict will continue to affect the prices of gas, oil and other raw materials in the short and medium term, which will have a negative impact on the wider economy and private households. However, it is not currently possible to estimate how severe the impact will be.
Development of DB Group
Our forecasts for the development of DB Group and the business units in the 2022 financial year are based on our expectations of developments in the market, competition and environment, and the implementation success of planned measures.
In 2022, the business development of DB Group is once again expected to be significantly influenced by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the length and intensity of which are currently unforeseeable. The consequences of the war in Ukraine are not quantified and are not taken into account in these forecasts. Consequently, the following forecasts are subject to greater uncertainty than in previous years.
Top targets Strong Rail
| ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT | 2021 | 2022 | |
Passengers (rail) long-distance transport (million) | 81.9 | ~130 | |
Passengers (rail) local transport (million) | 1,121 | ~ 1,400 | |
Volume sold rail freight transport (Germany) (billion tkm) | 60.3 | >62 | |
Train kilometers on track infrastructure (Germany) | 1,109 | >1.130 | |
Customer satisfaction DB Long-Distance (SI) | 77.8 | 80 | |
Customer satisfaction DB Regional (rail) (SI) | 71.6 | 72 | |
Customer satisfaction DB Cargo (SI) | 70 | 67 | |
Punctuality DB Long-Distance (%) | 75.2 | ~80 | |
Punctuality DB Regional (rail) (%) | 94.3 | ~95 | |
Punctuality DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 69.8 | ~72 | |
Share of renewable energies in the DB traction current mix | 62.4 | 64 | |
Employee satisfaction (SI) | – | 3.8 | |
ROCE (%) | –3.6 | >0 | |
Debt coverage (%) | 4.3 | ||
above previous year’s figure
at previous year’s level
below previous year’s figure
- Performance in regional and long-distance rail passenger transport should continue to stage a noticeable recovery in 2022. The exact extent of the recovery will be largely influenced by the future development of the Covid-19 pandemic.
- We also expect positive trends in rail freight transport volumes and train-path demand.
- At DB Cargo, we expect the customer satisfaction score to be significantly lower at the next measurement in March 2022 due to the significant drop in punctuality over the course of 2021.
- Punctuality is expected to improve in 2022. In order to achieve these goals, the quality measures initiated in 2021 will be continued and intensified. However, punctuality targets are under pressure due to the further increase in traffic volumes and a continued very high level of construction activity.
- We will continue our measures to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the DB traction current in Germany through a consequent increase in the share of renewable energies.
- In 2022, we will conduct our sixth Group-wide employee survey to detect trends and changes and to find out which measures are effective and where we still need to take action. We expect this to stabilize at our long-term tar-get level.
- Due to the expected significant improvement of adjusted EBIT, along with a simultaneous increase in capital employed, the ROCE is expected to improve.
- Debt coverage is also expected to increase significantly as a result of the expected improvement in operating profit.