Economic outlook
ANTICIPATEDDEVELOPMENT / % | 2021 | 2022 |
World trade | +11.7 | +5.0 |
GDP world | +5.8 | +4.0 |
GDP Eurozone | +5.2 | +3.5 |
GDP Germany | +2.8 | +3.5 |
As of February 2022 (before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine). Forecasts for 2022 rounded to half percentage points.
Source: Oxford Economics
Current expectations point to a significant recovery in the global economy for 2022, meaning that even countries and regions that have not yet returned to pre-Covid-19 levels of economic output will be able to overcome the slump induced by Covid-19.
A long-term effect of the Covid-19 pandemic is that many countries have taken on large amounts of debt to support their economies and due to a shortfall in tax revenues. This could reduce their room for maneuver in future crises. The monetary policy measures taken to support the economy also have their downside: inflation in the Eurozone, for example, has increased massively as a result of the ECB’s continued expansionary monetary policy. A further surge in inflation is expected as a result of the war in Ukraine.
