Outlook

Additional key figures for income, financial and asset situation

ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT / € billion

2021

2022

 

Revenues adjusted

47.3

>48

EBIT adjusted

–1.6

>0

Gross capital expenditures

15.4

>16

Net capital expenditures

6.3

>6.5

Maturities

2.2

2.2

Bond issues (senior)

4.9

<5

Net financial debt as of Dec 31

29.1

>30

The economic development of DB Group in 2022 will continue to be largely influenced by the momentum of the ongoing recovery in demand for passenger transport. We therefore expect a continued positive development in revenues and profit, but the extent of this is fraught with uncertainty, especially regarding the future development of the Covid-19 pandemic. In terms of the development of net profit for the year, a significantly lower special effect from pandemic-related train-path price subsidies will have a dampening effect.

We will continue our quality and capital expenditure initiative for the Integrated Rail System with large capital expen­ditures. We thus intend to improve our quality and customer satisfaction, drive forward digitalization (including IT security improvements) and increase our performance capability. Capital expenditures in 2022 are expected to be above the 2021 level. This is mainly due to higher capital expenditures in rolling stock at DB Long-Distance and DB Regional, as well as increased investments in rail infrastructure within the framework of the LuFV III.

Efficient liquidity management is once again a top priority for us in 2022. We are focusing on continually forecasting the cash flow from operating activities, as this is our main source of cash and cash equivalents. We produce liquidity forecasts every month on the basis of a 12-month liquidity plan. In 2022, we must redeem financial liabilities (excluding commercial paper and current bank liabilities) at about the same level as in 2021. Funding needs for this are met by issu­ing public and non-public bonds. Roadshows are planned in Europe and Asia in conjunction with the bond issues.

For our capital market activities, we continue to have adequate financing scope from our debt issuance programs and our commercial paper program. The guaranteed credit facilities serve as a fallback in the event of a disruption to capital market access. At the beginning of 2022, we issued three senior bonds through DB Finance. Our short- and medium-term liquidity supply is therefore also secure in 2022.

The majority of our gross capital expenditures in 2022 will again be covered by investment grants. In addition, a fur­-ther equity measure from the Federal Government is planned as part of the Climate Action Program. The net capital expenditures to be financed by DB Group will likely also not be fully covered by internal sources in 2022.

We still plan to divest DB Arriva in the medium term. We assume that this will take place after 2022.

Net financial debt is expected to rise again as of December 31, 2022, taking into account even higher net capital expenditures and the continuing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The fact that DBAG will not make a dividend payment to the Federal Government in 2022 will have a positive offsetting effect.

We will also continue our M&A activities in a selective and focused manner in 2022.

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