Assessment of the risk situation
The main risks for DB Group result primarily from the further course of the Covid-19 pandemic and the speed of the recovery process in terms of the demand for passenger transport. Recovery in demand is of fundamental importance for improving the financial situation. Risks from the Ukraine crisis are not yet represented here.
The risk situation is assessed on the basis of our RMS. Opportunities and risks that are highly likely (PoO > 70%) have been dealt with in the mid-term planning. The system is based on the requirements of the German Act on Corporate Control&Transparency (KonTraG) and is continually evolving. In 2021, the methodology was expanded to include the definition of a risk-bearing capacity and a statement on existential risks based on simulation-based risk aggregation.
As of December 31, 2021, DB Group’s main risks (probable risks) not only concerned the Covid-19 pandemic, but also the areas of production, technology and regulation, as well as the economy, the market and competition.
Opportunities beyond the EBIT forecast primarily include other public support for passenger transport as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as opportunities associated in the area of economic climate, market and competition, particularly at DB Schenker.
Due to hedging measures, energy price increases only had a minor impact on our expectations for the 2022 financial year. In subsequent years, however, there may be major effects on profits.
Third-party evaluation is also an important indicator for overall risk assessment. In addition to the internal risk assessment, DB Group’s creditworthiness and aggregate default risk are assessed by credit rating agencies. Their external assessments of DB Group’s total risk position are reflected in the good credit ratings. In the area of sustainability, potential risks are externally assessed and evaluated by ESG rating agencies.
In terms of organization, we have created the conditions necessary to enable the early identification of possible risks. Our continuous risk management and the active management of key risk categories contribute to limiting risks. Key strategic opportunities and risks were identified at the business unit level and recorded in the course of the strategic process for operationalization with measures. Our analyses of opportunities and risks, countermeasures, hedging and precautionary measures, together with the opinion of the Management Board based on the current risk assessment and our mid-term planning (MTP), indicate that there are no risks that, individually or jointly, could have an impact on the net assets, financial position and results of operations of DB Group and that would pose a threat to the Group as a going concern.