Economic outlook
| Anticipated development / % | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| World trade | +4.9 | +2.0 |
| GDP world | +3.0 | +3.0 |
| GDP Eurozone | +1.5 | +1.0 |
| GDP Germany | +0.3 | +0.5 |
As of February 2026.
Forecasts for 2026 rounded to half percentage points.
Source: Oxford Economics
The forecasts for global economic growth in 2026 are roughly on a par with the previous year. The major trading regions present a mixed picture: while growth in Asia is expected to continue to weaken slightly, the economy in North America is seeing a moderate expansion. In Europe, growth is likely to remain at the previous year’s level overall. After three years of recession and stagnation, Germany is expected to return to slight economic growth in 2026. However, this cannot yet be described as sustainable trend reversal.
Industrial production remains weak. Increased trade restrictions and the changed global production and demand structure, particularly as a result of China’s changing role in the global economy, are placing an additional burden on German exports. Private consumption remains muted despite inflation returning to normal, as employment prospects are subdued. According to forecasts, growth in international trade in goods is likely to slow significantly due to increasing protectionism.
The expansionary financial policy should have a supporting effect in 2026. In addition to significantly higher impetus from the Special Fund for Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality, rising defense spending and tax relief are also contributing to the economic recovery. However, reforms that would address the structural causes of the current economic weakness and sustainably support the transformation of the German economy are still not in sight.