Outlook
Outlook
While global economic growth remained at a solid level in 2025 and the European economy picked up again, gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated in Germany, Europe’s largest economy. Overall, the economic performance of the European Union therefore lagged behind other regions of the world such as North America (NAFTA) and Asia.
After three years of recession and stagnation, the German economy is expected to see a return to slight growth in 2026. However, the reorganization of economic relations continues to weigh on economic development in Germany. Although the global economy proved resilient overall in 2025, US trade policy and the resulting distortions are likely to lead to a slowdown in international trade in goods in 2026.
Government investments will have a stabilizing effect over the course of the year, whereas private investments will remain subdued. Although inflation has returned to normal, private consumption is not developing its momentum in full as muted employment prospects are affecting consumer confidence.
Development of DB Group
- Progress expected in the implementation of the modernization program and Group restructuring.
- Revenue and profit development expected to be positive.
- Development of debt coverage expected to be stable.
Our forecasts for the development of DB Group and the business units in the 2026 financial year are based on our expectations of developments in the market, competition and environment, and the implementation success of the planned measures.
The business development of DB Group in 2026 is expected to continue to be characterized by burdens due to high energy, procurement and personnel costs. In addition, quality assurance and quality improvement measures, particularly in the track infrastructure, have an impact on the development of DB Group. Economic development in Germany and Europe is likely to have bottomed out, meaning that slight supporting effects are expected. Countermeasures should have a positive effect.
Financial key figures
| Anticipated development | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues adjusted (€ billion) | 27.0 | ~ 28 |
| EBIT adjusted (€ billion) | 0.3 | ~ 0.6 |
| ROCE (%) | 0.6 | ~1 |
| Debt coverage (%) | 13.4 | ~13 |
- Income situation:
- The economic development of DB Group should continue to improve in 2026 and revenues should increase slightly.
- We expect to see a further improvement in operating profit (EBIT adjusted) in 2026. The improvement is being driven by positive development, particularly at DB InfraGO, DB Long-Distance and DB Cargo.
- We expect the improved operating profit development to lead to an improvement in ROCE.
- In 2026, we expect debt coverage to stabilize as a result of an improved operating profit accompanied by higher net financial debt.
- Financial position and asset situation:
- Bonds are expected to be issued again in 2026, after we did not issue any bonds in 2025 due to the sale of DB Schenker. We will be able to take out short-term loans under committed facilities also in 2026. We continue to have adequate financing scope for our capital market activities from our debt issuance programs and our commercial paper program. In addition, guaranteed credit facilities serve as a fallback in the event of disruption to capital market access. Our short- and medium-term liquidity supply is therefore also secure in 2026.
Non-financial key figures
| Anticipated development | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Punctuality (operational) DB Long-Distance (%) | 60.1 | 60 |
| Punctuality DB Regional (rail) (stop-weighted) (%) | 88.7 | ~ 89 |
| Punctuality DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 67.7 | ~ 68 |
| Employee satisfaction (SI) | – | 3.7 |
| Absolute greenhouse gas emissions Scope 1 and 2compared to 2019 (%) | –21.8 | ≤–23 |
| Share of renewable energies in the DB traction current mix in Germany 1) (%) | 71.5 | ≥72 |
| Track kilometers noise-remediated in total as of Dec 31 (km) | 2,422 | >2,470 |
1) The data for 2025 constitutes a forecast as of January 2026.
- Quality:
- The aim for 2026 is to stabilize punctuality. Achieving the punctuality targets remains a major challenge due to the further planned increase in the construction volume and the existing capacity and obsolescence problems in the infrastructure. For this reason, quality measures will be further advanced and intensified, particularly with regard to structurally sustainable improvements.
- Social:
- The first employee survey since the sale of DB Schenker will take place in 2026. We anticipate employee satisfaction to be slightly lower than in the most recent survey in 2024 (including DB Schenker), but slightly higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic (DB Group in Germany: 3.6). The results of the culture barometer in 2025 support this expectation.
- Environment:
- We expect our absolute Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions to decrease further compared to 2019. This is to be achieved by further increasing the share of renewable energies in the DB traction current mix in Germany and in the traction current mix of our companies in other European countries, by increasing the share of HVO biofuel in our total diesel consumption and by continuously implementing efficiency measures in operations.
- A slight increase in the share of renewable energies is expected in 2026.
- We will continue the noise remediation of lines as scheduled in 2026.