Assessment of the risk situation in 2026
The risk assessment is based on our RMS relative to the forecast for adjusted EBIT development in the 2026 financial year. The system is aligned with the requirements of the KonTraG and is continuously being further developed.
- The main risk areas (medium relevance) are primarily found in the categories “Financing from the Federal budget,” “Production and technology” and “Economic climate, market and competition.”
- In the “Production and technology” category, the assessed risks primarily concern DB Long-Distance due to revenue and cost risks resulting from reduced punctuality and additional construction-related restrictions.
- In the “Economic climate, market and competition” category, DB Long-Distance faces risks due to increasing competitive intensity resulting from competitors expanding their service offerings and capacities, as well as from demand weakening as a result of economic conditions. DB Cargo also faces competitive risks, risks stemming from economic developments in sectors predisposed to rail transport, and risks related to the ability to pass on increased factor costs. DB Regional faces risks in connection with the Germany-Ticket arising both from volume effects and from financing risks related to the compensation of lost revenues.
- In the “Financing from the Federal budget” category, there is a risk associated with train-path price support for long-distance rail transport. Although this funding is included in the 2026 Federal budget, the necessary amendment to the funding directive has not yet been made.
- The opportunities (low significance) in the categories “Financing from the Federal budget,” “Procurement and energy market,” “Law and contracts” and “Production and technology” consist primarily of opportunities related to procurement pricing and compensation payments for construction delays.
In addition, there are unassessed risks, particularly in connection with the “Agenda for Satisfied Rail Customers” published by the Federal Ministry of Transport, as key measures will be defined in the first half of 2026 or decisions on the issues addressed will not be made until 2026 and therefore cannot yet be assessed. In addition, recent developments such as the postponement of the commissioning dates for Stuttgart 21 and the corridor modernization Hamburg — Berlin are still unassessed, as their full impact has not yet been determined.
Other unassessed opportunities and risks relate to the impact of punctuality, unscheduled construction sites, interlocking staffing and the organizational restructuring of DB Group as a prerequisite for its business-oriented and cost-effective realignment. Similarly, the implications of the ECJ proceedings regarding the “train-path price cap” in regional rail passenger transport (see Regulation) have not been assessed, as the ruling is still pending and the potential resulting effects on the financing of contracting organizations and any necessary reforms to the fee regulation framework are currently uncertain. The items listed above that are unassessed may give rise to both risks and opportunities compared to the forecast.
Third-party evaluation is also an important indicator for overall risk assessment. In addition to the internal risk assessment, the creditworthiness and the aggregated default risk of DB Group are assessed by credit rating agenciesµ 62. Their external assessments of DB Group’s overall risk exposure are reflected in its strong credit ratings. In the area of sustainability, potential risks are externally assessed and evaluated by ESG rating agencies.
In terms of organization, we have created the conditions necessary to enable the early identification of possible risks. Our continuous risk management and the active management of key risk categories contribute to limiting risks. Key strategic opportunities and risks were identified at business unit level and backed up with measures in the course of the strategic process and for operationalization. Our analyses of opportunities and risks, countermeasures, hedging and precautionary measures, together with the evaluation of the Management Board based on the current risk assessment and our medium-term planning, indicate that there are no risks that, individually or jointly, could have an impact on the net assets, financial position and income situation of DB Group, and that would pose a threat to DB Group as a going concern.
At DB Cargo AG, there is a risk that key assumptions underlying liquidity planning will not materialize during the forecast period (particularly if the transformation of DB Cargo cannot be successfully implemented or risks arising from economic developments and the market environment materialize), thereby resulting in a liquidity shortfall. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty at DB Cargo AG, which may cast significant doubt on the ability of DB Cargo AG to continue as a going concern, and which represents a risk to DB Cargo AG’s continued existence. Due to DB Cargo AG’s high credit exposure to DB AG, this also represents a risk for DB AG as a lender.
Key risks for 2026
| Risk category | Significant risks | Probability of occurrence | Impact | Relevance | Change compared to previous year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amendment to the train-path price support directive for long-distance transport | Likely | Medium | Medium | ||
| Financing from the Federal budget | Lack of funding and uncertain funding for maintenance expenses | Possible | Medium | Low | – |
| Production and technology | Revenue and expense risks relating to punctuality and construction sites | Likely | Medium | Medium | |
| Unplanned maintenance measures | Likely | Low | Low | ||
| Delays to ramp-up of optimization programs | Possible | Medium | Low | – | |
| Economic climate, market and competition | Competition in long-distance and freight transport, volume and financing risks of the Germany-Ticket | Likely | Medium | Medium | – |
| Regulation | Reclaim of regional factors, complaints about train-path pricing system rulings | – | – | – | |
| Law and contracts | Liability risks arising from past acquisitions, recovery risks | Possible | Low | Low | – |
| Procurement and energy market | Procurement price risks | – | – | – | |
| Extraordinary events | Geopolitical risks | Possible | Low | Low | |
| Extreme weather events | Possible | Low | Low | ||
| Capital markets and taxes | Rising interest rates on the capital markets | Possible | Low | Low | – |
Unassessed risks, that is risks that could not be assessed as of December 31, 2025, are generally not part of the table and are described qualitatively in the text.
Key opportunities in 2026
| Opportunity category | Significant opportunities | Probability of occurrence | Impact | Relevance | Change compared to previous year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Procurement and energy market | Procurement price opportunities | Likely | Low | Low | |
| Financing from the Federal budget | Creation of a contractual basis for Government funding | – | – | – | |
| Support for rail freight transport | Possible | Low | Low | – | |
| Production and technology | Spending monitoring and control program, optimization programs | – | – | – | |
| Law and contracts | Compensation for damages for construction delays | Possible | Low | Low | – |
| Economic climate, market and competition | Market opportunities in freight transport | Likely | Low | Low | |
| Capital markets and taxes | Falling interest rates on the capital markets | Possible | Low | Low | – |
Unassessed opportunities, that is opportunities that could not be evaluated as of December 31, 2025, are generally not included in the table and are described qualitatively in the text.