Identification of climate-related risks and scenario analysis
In the area of environmental sustainability, DB Group focuses on climate protection and climate resilience. Capital expenditures in climate resilience can help to reduce the costs of damage caused by climate change.
Climate-related physical risks
As an operator of critical infrastructure and as an organization with high land use, DB Group is strongly affected by the current and future impacts of climate change. We are therefore preparing for a higher baseline stress and increasing extreme weather events and are continuing to further develop our climate resilience management strategically and operationally.
Physical risks are assessed on the basis of several analyses. In 2021, we once again commissioned the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to conduct a study examining the climatic changes in Germany up to 2060 and their expected impact on DB’s rail infrastructure, using two climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
- RCP2.6 (compliance with the 2 °C target) and
- RCP8.5 (“continue as before”).
The scenarios were selected in order to depict a plausible range of future developments in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting climatic changes. Climate development for the reference period (1961 to 1990), the present day (1991 to 2020) and the future (2031 to 2060) was examined on the basis of a 12 x 12 km grid for ten climatic parameters, including days with extreme heat, storms and heavy rainfall. For the first time, the study also provided detailed forecasts of the climatic effects in the 34 transport regions of DB InfraGO. The analysis showed that an overall increase in physical climate risks is to be expected for DB Group. The results predict significantly more heat days and fewer harsh winters. At the same time, extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain and flooding will increase, as will the intensity of storm events. To analyze the sensitivity of the infrastructure to weather patterns, the relationship between major weather patterns and the number of disruptions was investigated. The results indicate an increased sensitivity as soon as critical thresholds for temperature and wind speed are exceeded.
The findings of the PIK study from 2021 form the basis for DB Group’s own, more extensive climate risk analyses. On a Group-wide basis, all efforts required for reliable rail technology to meet the challenges of climate change have been pooled in the overarching “climate-resilient rail technology” program since 2024. This is aimed at identifying systematic measures for making vehicles, infrastructure, energy grids, buildings and structures more technically climate-resilient based on a specially developed process model.
In 2024, we structured our facilities with this purpose in mind. This served as the basis for a comprehensive qualitative climate risk analysis at the level of these groups of facilities, for example including command and control technology in the infrastructure or air conditioning systems in vehicles. The sensitivity of the facilities to climate hazards such as heat, storms, precipitation, ice and snow was qualitatively assessed by the respective experts on the basis of past experience. The assessment encompassing the dimensions of sensitivity, criticality and urgency served to illustrate the impact on the facility groups based on over 1,700 data points and enabled priority areas of action to be identified. In addition, the interaction of DB Group’s facility groups in Germany is analyzed in order to ensure a focus on the availability of the overall performance capability of the rail system.
Priority facilities were identified on the basis of this qualitative assessment and subjected to a quantitative climate risk analysis in the next step. The climatological data from the basic service of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS Basisdienst) was used as a recognized data basis for the assessment of the exposure. DB Group has more than 80 parameters with a high geographical resolution of 5 x 5 km for the reference period (1971 to 2000), the near future (2031 to 2060) and the distant future (2071 to 2100). This allows us to gain detailed insights into regional climate change impacts. By correlating technical performance data with climatological parameters, areas of action will be identified and their impacts quantified. The SSP5/RCP8.5 climate scenario was defined as the reference scenario in order to assess the risks under an ambitious, safety-oriented assumption framework and to ensure the robust design of the rail technology over the entire service life of the facilities.
Further information can be found in the opportunity and risk report chapter of the combined management report.
Climate-related transition risks and opportunities
The central business activities of DB Group in Germany – transport services and rail infrastructure – are taken into account when deriving climate-related transition risks and opportunities. The value chain (Scope 3 emissions) also plays a key role in this respect. The assessment of climate-related transition risks is based on a study conducted by a management consultancy in 2021.
The scenario analysis used in the study considered a 2 °C scenario based on the IRENA REmap and Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution energy scenarios. The short-term, medium-term and long-term time horizons of 2019 to 2030 and 2019 to 2050 were considered. At the same time, the SBTi-validated climate protection targets and DB Group’s underlying decarbonization strategy are already based on a global transformation path that aims to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5 °C. The actions planned as part of the SBTi target therefore already reflect the assumptions, opportunities and challenges of a 1.5 °C pathway. The scenario was selected because it most clearly illustrates the respective impacts of climate-related changes.
The scenario analysis combined three key aspects: energy developments (energy consumption, availability and fuel switching factors for each energy source), emissions (carbon footprint and emission reduction potential) and costs (assumptions for energy prices, carbon pricing, etc.).
The study was conducted in accordance with the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). In addition to the direct risks arising from the study, further risks for DB Group were identified by internal subject-matter experts.
Further information on dealing with transition risks can be found under Climate Transition Plan.
Further information can be found in the opportunity and risk report in the combined management report.