Freight transport

Figures are based on information and estimates available as of January 2026. Forecasts for 2026 rounded to half percentage points.

The German freight transport market is expected to stabilize in 2026. The economic low point is likely to be over. The German economy and industrial production should regain some momentum thanks to infrastructure and defense investments from the special funds. Additional positive impetus is expected from the recovery in the construction industry. However, higher customs duties and ongoing competitive pressure from Asia, particularly in export-oriented industries such as mechanical engineering and the steel industry, are having a negative impact that is likely to dampen demand for transport.

• The rail freight transport market in Germany is also set to decline significantly overall in 2026. Continued double-digit declines in coal transports are expected to be partially offset by rising transports of construction materials, boosted by the recovery in the construction industry. The weak development of product groups pre-disposed to rail transport from the steel, chemicals and automotive industry is set to continue, albeit to a less pronounced extent than in the previous year. Combined transport is likely to continue to decline in 2026 due to intensified construction measures on the German rail network.
• A slight recovery in transport performance is forecast for European rail freight transport in 2026 following an unexpected decline in 2025. The prerequisite is that there needs to be a stabilization in the partly unexpected causes of the market slowdown. The easing of trade policy restrictions has a positive effect on the economy and on trade, as does the easing of geopolitical disputes. If the general conditions develop positively, combined transport in particular will prove to be a growth driver. Price and reliability continue to play a decisive role in the competitiveness of rail freight transport compared to road, including in a European context. As many freight transports cross borders, the significant increase in train-path prices will have a corresponding impact, as will restrictions resulting from construction activities on the rail network – especially if these are unplanned or carried out without alternative routes.
• German road freight transport is also expected to recover slightly in 2026 following the slight decline in the previous year. Rising Government spending and the resulting recovery in the construction industry are having a stabilizing effect on volume sold. This is supported by the continued growth in e-commerce.
• Inland waterway transport is expected to see further slight declines in 2026 from an already low level.